As the new year starts in earnest i was going to write a set of predictions for the year ahead, to jump on the bandwagon so to speak and at a later date, compare my predictions to the events of reality, but as i did so, i realized 80% of what I wanted to write about was on one topic and one topic only, the Russians, for the past month or so, I have been looking at news reports, and various sources across the internet about a potential invasion of Ukraine by the Russian federation, seemingly slated to happen mid January- mid February, the evidence is hard to refute, videos of combat, logistics and other gear needed to invade as well as effectively suppress resistance in Ukraine started to appear from Russian TikTok, and various OSINT (open-source intelligence) enthusiasts as well seemed to agree that the Russians were moving serious gear to the Ukrainian border, NATO reaffirmed its solidarity for Ukraine, and eastern Europe prepared for the possibility of a major war in there backyard.....
And then Kazakhstan had a popular uprising, and the Russian watching community has been in a fervour trying to reassess the situation now that a massive southern neighbour of the Russian Federation, a loyal ally of Putin and oil and uranium supplier has decided to erupt into riots and gunfights.
so now its time for me to put my two cents on the matter, despite not being asked, nor being particularly qualified, I will start by looking at the history of Ukraine and Russia before looking at why Russia would want to invade and why that would be a very very bad idea, before speculating at what a potential full-scale offensive in 21st century Europe would look like (spoilers: not good) and what could go wrong (another spoiler: Everything) and I will finish by explaining why this week, starting the 10th of January 2022, is pivotal in determining the next month and year ahead for a potential conflict
1. The Situation in Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia's story goes back centuries, but for the sake of brevity, I will keep the scope within the past two centuries, in which Ukraine was a part of the Russian empire, and then later the soviet union, in which over the course of the century the Russian led government pursue a policy of russification, and genocide against the Ukrainian people, the effects of this can be felt today, with large portions of Ukraine's southern and eastern regions being majority Russian speaking, however in the 90s as with the majority of eastern Europe Ukraine was able to capitalize on the instability of a terminally declining USSR and pursue independence.
However there link to Russia was not severed, as with Belarus and other former Soviet states, what emerged after the soviet union was a pro-Russian oligarchy, of course, there were elections, but more often than not, those who came out on top were those who were cosy with the kremlin, like in 2010 when Viktor Yanukovych was elected as president of Ukraine, however, the Ukrainian people wanted change, they wanted to join the European Union and become a modern European state, something the Yanukovych regime promised to pursue but then at the last minute failed to sign talks with the European Union and instead continued along its pro-Russian path, this led to the Euromaidan, or the revolution of dignity, in which the Ukrainian people after a long and bloody protest marked by the brutal response by security forces, force Yanukovych to flee to Russia.
Russia's response to the sudden change in circumstances in Ukraine was swift and sudden, deciding to capitalize on the confusion and chaos in Kyiv, Russian forces backed separatists in the majority Russian speaking Donbas region, and Crimea, deploying the now famous 'little green men' unmarked soldiers who would not wonder whether they were Ukrainian or Russian, this culminated in the annexation of Crimea to Russia, a move that the international community does not recognize a legitimate and the ongoing Donbas war, where the Ukrainian government is stuck in a long campaign against the Russian backed, funded and supplied, Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republics, and this has been the situation in Ukraine for 8 years.
So why would Russia invade now?
2. Losing the Advantage
In 2014, the Ukrainian army, was best described as an amalgamation of militias and underfunded units, with little in the way of modern hardware, hardly a match for the Russian army, who after the less than stellar performance of their own forces in Georgia in 2008, underwent a modernization process called Zapad, So why did the Russians not invade Ukraine then and why would they invade the Ukrainians now?
Well to answer that we need to understand why Putin would destabilize and interfere in Ukraine in the first place, and for that three reasons come to mind, it was popular, it was easy, and it kept Ukraine out of the west,
Putin's invasion of Crimea, for all its international ramifications, was to the Russian people popular, Putin's approval ratings before the Crimean annexation was 62%, as Russia was still recovering from the 2011-2013 anti-Putin protests that rocked the country, after the annexation, it was 89% an all-time high [1].
The Invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Donbas, war was for the Russian military a relatively easy operation, in which the little green men walked in and declared Crimea Russian, and the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, while initially losing ground have been able to hold and stabilize there territory, turning the eastern Ukrainian front into a slog, of sniper fire, shelling and 21st Century trench warfare.
One of the major concerns of the Kremlin seems to be the encroaching movement of NATO closer to its borders, with the Baltics joining the bloc, Russia does not want to share another border with the mutual defence pact, in that regard invading Ukraine served that purpose, by making NATO wary of bringing Ukraine into the bloc, for fear of further Russian escalation.
So if these are the reasons that Putin invaded Ukraine before, Why would Putin want to invade Ukraine now?
Putin's approval rating, is not as high as it was in 2014, with his most recent approval ratings being measured as around 59%, of course, a 60% approval rating is not something to dismay about, but considering last year’s protests against Putin in support of human rights activist and anti-corruption lawyer Navally, which captured the support of the Russian youth, this coming at a time where Putin is pushing reforms to the Russian constitution to extend the length of his rule to at least 2036 Putin may be seeking a quick victory to further cement his rule. of course this could backfire if the Russian casualties are too high, nothing tanks support for a government like black body bags, crying mothers, constant casualty reports on the news, wars are only popular if you win, which is not guaranteed.
Since 2014 the Ukrainian military, has undergone massive improvement, and modernization, with American training, and Turkish drones, since 2021 where the threat of Russian invasion has dramatically increased, the Ukrainian military has been hard at work ensuring the nation is safe and secure, updating their maps to ensure the civilian populace knows where its bunkers are, increasing conscription for women between the ages of 18-60, and as recently as January the 1st this year setting up a territorial defence force, designed to take part in resistance action should the worse happen, anyone from 18 to 60, regardless of the military background can join [2] as well as the receiving of American javelin missiles, a lethal anti-tank weapon, all in all, the Ukrainian army of today has the potential to be an effective fighting force, one that would bleed Russians resources and men, so why would Russia invade? because for all its gains, and all its potential to cause problems to the kremlin, Ukraine does not pose a threat to Russia, and Putin at the moment, however that is about to change, as in April the Ukrainian government is slated to receive its first batch of R-360, cruise missiles [3], receiving 72 of them, Neptune missiles are subsonic, ground based low flying missiles with a range of 500 kilometers or 310 miles, meaning in the event they were used against Russia would put major centres of population at risk, as such it may be the thinking in the kremlin that its for the best to strike now, while Ukraine can not attack Russian infrastructure and cities, sure the cost will be bloody, but nowhere near as bloody as a war with a nation that can strike Russia itself, of course Ukraine gaining Neptune missiles also changes the maths in the donbass conflict, as means Ukraine could shoot rebel positions from a distance, that combined with the use of Turkish drones that has already been causing issues with Russian backed forces could finally end Russia's proxy war, something Russia does not want.
Despite its best efforts, In fact one could argue because of them (Invading your neighbour is not the best way to make friends) the Ukrainian government has become less friendly towards the kremlin and has become more adamant that a timetable to join NATO be set up and that the united states and Europe continue and expand its programs to arm and train the beleaguered nation, this to the paranoid Russian state, that sees Europe, NATO and the united states as a threat to the existence of Russia as at best, funding and supporting an enemy of the kremlin and at worst, openly seeking to destroy Russia through the use of Ukraine and its army, who Putin has described in the past as taking part in a genocide against Russians in dobass, this may be enough to convince Russia to pursue a aggressive foreign policy, already Russia has demanded NATO guarantee Ukraine does not gain membership, and that NATO returns to its 1996 borders, something i will get into later but suffice to say is not likely to be accepted.
So the scene is set, there are over 100,000 men and a lot of equipment on Ukraine's border, Anthony Blinken we general secretary says that Russia has the potential to bring that up to 300,000 in short order, and this week NATO and Russia will meet to determine the fate of Ukraine and Europe.
Then Kazakhstan explodes.
3. Kazakhstan saves Ukraine?
As much as it would be nice to assume that just as Russia was focused with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, a nation with deep ties to Russia, and a pro-Russian dictator, erupts into furious protest, throwing the whole plan down the toilet, it seems unlikely, however.
The protests in Kazakhstan appeared in early January over fuel prices, and before the first week of the year was out, had erupted into what can be described as an uprising against the Kazakh leadership, amidst this widespread unrest, a factional struggle amidst the Kazakh elites seems to have taken place with the former dictator, and prominent figure Nursultan Nazarbayev was removed as head of the security forces with current president Kassym-Jormat Tokayev taking control of the situation, giving his forces a 'shoot to kill order. He then asked for aid from Russia and other members of the collective security treaty organization (Russia's response to NATO) for assistance, with Russian, Belarussian, and Armenian troops arriving in quick succession, with Russian forces being led by Andrey Serdiukov, who was also in command of the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s intervention in Syria, and so is an expert in operating in hostile nations, However, it does not look like the situation in Kazakhstan has changed Russias attention away from Ukraine, with the president of Kazakhstan announcing the situation is under control and CSTO forces expected to leave after a week, how accurate this is hard to say, however, reports from Osint and videos from various sources around Russia show more equipment being funnelled to Ukraine, so at the risk of being wrong, I am going to say that Kazakhstan did not save Ukraine.
In fact, it is possible that the situation has solidified Russia’s stance with Russian news source Sputnik, as well as Tass and others arguing that the uprising in Kazakhstan was perpetrated by the west to foment a ‘colour revolution’[4] (Something they also said about Ukraine in 2014’ feeding the narrative that Nato is tightening its grip around a surrounded Russia that’s being backed into a corner.
This Coming just as negotiations with NATO begin on the 10th of January.
4. Last-ditch Diplomacy
This week is expected to be an exciting, nerve-wracking and busy week for the world community as NATO and Russia meet to determine the fate of Ukraine and Europe, with the first such event being a meeting between Russia and the united states deputy secretary of defence, one in which it is expected that the deputy secretary will reiterate that if Russia invades sanctions will be necessary while Russia will most likely put forward there concerns about NATO expansion, and expectation that military withdrawals in eastern Europe or even a retreat of NATO to its pre-1997 borders, which will most likely be rejected, it will be interesting to see how long these negotiations last, with deputy foreign minister Ryabkov, the Russian representative, saying that if the first meeting will be the last if demands are not taken seriously.
After that, the outcome of those talks will be discussed and Russia and NATO members will hold a meeting on the 12th, in which it is expected that the member nations, especially those in eastern Europe, where a war has the potential to spill over will reaffirm their support for Ukraine before finally on the 13th there will be a meeting of the United States, Ukraine and Russia, where the military build-up will be discussed, as well as Russia’s concerns over the potential of the Ukrainians using drones to order a new offensive against the Donbas.
It is hoped tensions will be diffused but the talks may break down, or Russia is going through the motions before having their demands which NATO see as unreasonable rejected to declare a just war.
So if Worse comes to worst what would war against Ukraine look like?
5. A very blood affair
Diplomacy has failed, and Putin was not bluffing, sometime in mid-January to early February the world wakes up to Russian tanks crossing the Ukrainian border, the Us embassy enacts its plans to evacuate Kyiv, and the newsfeeds, youtube and other forms of social media are full of shocking scenes as the frozen trench warfare of the Donbas give in to tank offensives, and street to street fighting in European cities.
I know nothing of what Russia would do in such an invasion, or how it would attack, from what I have seen and read they may go for the south of Ukraine around Crimea, but I do not know, so I will not speculate on the tactics of such a war, I am more interested in what happens should the worst happen, how Europe changes, how Russia is effected and of course how the world can help Ukraine in this tragedy.
The first thing that will become clear to Russia and the world is that Ukraine will not surrender without a fight, territorial defence units will be called up, reserves mobilised, conscription expanded, in the west of Ukraine troops will be getting ready to go east, while behind Russian lines, civilians and soldiers will form resistance groups, harassing Russian forces and making holding and policing cities and towns exceptionally difficult, however, if the Chechnya war or the Donbas and Crimean occupation is anything to go by Russia will use terror and harassment to displace the Ukrainian population, resistance will be met with brutal force.
Russia will probably have control of the air, having a larger airforce than Ukraine and therefore will be able to damage infrastructure and pick off troops, slowly as the days and weeks go on it seems likely that the Ukrainians will retreat to Kyiv and the Dnieper, whether or not Russia will commit to invading all of Ukraine or not is unclear, but Russia will be able to seize the nations east, and will then have to decide if they would like to commit to a river crossing offensive, as well as brutal street fighting in Kyiv, or keeping a rump Ukraine on its border were resistance fighters can cross to regroup and train and then return to continue their assault.
In Europe, the situation will be equally as dire, NATO will bring its troops forward to ensure the war does not spread, the Baltics and Poland will be preparing their forces for wider escalation, and millions of refugees from Ukraine will cross into wider Europe, creating a humanitarian crisis.
Assuming NATO and the Americans don’t get involved, as Ukraine is not a NATO member and that Ukraine either does not ask for assistance in the conflict as is there right under international law, or it is outright rejected, the Americans may take lessons from the Taliban, that an effective guerilla force can beat the strongest of armies and begin sending stinger missiles and other weapons to whatever is left of the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian resistance, forcing Russia to get stuck in a proxy war, with massive insurgent activity, with the white house hoping that the constant loss of Russian soldiers, coupled with the inevitable sanctions will cause Putin so much domestic trouble he will have to back down.
With a new offensive in Ukraine Europe will be on edge, the Baltics and Scandinavia will be deeply concerned with Russia’s actions, with Finland and Sweden perhaps even openly discussing joining NATO, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have promised to arm Ukraine and will make good on that promise, as well as bringing their armies to a higher readiness, in these new tensions something may go wrong, a plane gets to close to the combat zone, NATO and Russian soldiers bump into each over or a move in misinterpreted, and the conflict spills over and drags NATO in reluctantly, let us not forget, a small Balkan conflict between Serbia and Austria-Hungry once exploded into one of the worse wars in human history, as unlikely as it is, and it is unlikely, wars are chaotic and all it takes is a moment for it to all go horribly wrong.
[1]"Vladimir Putin's approval rating at record levels". The Guardian. 23 July 2015.
[2]Who can and can’t join Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Force, The Kyiv independent, 7 January 2022
[3]CAN UKRAINE’S BUDDING MISSILE ARSENAL RUN OUT RUSSIA’S INVASION CLOCK?, Coffee or Die Magazine, January 3rd 2022
[4]Kazakh Protests Show Pattern of West-Directed 'Color Revolution', Ex-Diplomat Says, Sputnik News, January 8th 2022
