I swear that this will not become a blog about Russia, or the threat of war every week like some hysterical teenager thinking the world is coming to an end, but since my last blog post, about the chances of this year being the year Russia further invades Ukraine, things have progressed, so consider this post, an update of sorts.
To put it bluntly, the situation has only gotten worse, and it seems Europe is as little as 72 hours from disaster.
Well, that is according to the American intelligence agencies who have advised with increasing urgency that all US citizens should leave Ukraine as soon as possible, other countries have followed suit including my home nation of the UK, with the prime minister Boris johnson saying Europe was on ‘the precipice’.
Last week was another week of desperate diplomacy between the West and Russia in the firm hope that war can be avoided, alas it seems those talks have failed, or at least publicly Vladimir Putin has refused to alter course, even at one point during a press conference with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, saying of Ukraine being invaded “like it or not, you have to bare it my beauty” an old Russian adage, with implications of both rape and necrophilia, the message there neither subtle nor pleasant, Ukraine, is a dead nation, a nation to be raped, and a nation owed to Russia, Putin's beauty.
In the same conference, Putin threatened nuclear war with France (and as an extension NATO), if Ukraine tried to take Crimea by force, which is unlikely, but with Russia, it's entirely possible they will claim that's happening, reminding us all that while Ukraine is the target of Russia's ire, NATO is also in its sights, and any war in Ukraine could spread, fast.
During the weekend several countries, the UK, USA, Canada and Japan included decided to move their embassies away from Kyiv or evacuate their non-essential staff, the UK and Canada pulled out their small number of troops, there to train the Ukrainians, fear of this conflict escalating into a Europe wide, possibly worldwide great power war fresh on everyone's mind.
This week, these next three days will be pivotal, if Putin does not invade on the 16th of Feb like the US has claimed he might, then he may after the 20th, but right now, its these 72 hours we have to look at, and its these 73 hours we have to ask ourselves what happens if two of the largest armies in Europe, Ukraine and Russia got at it?
Well, the answer is bad things very bad things.
Ukraine is third and fourth in the world for grain and corn exports, sometimes called Europe's bread basket, if it burns, food prices will rise fast, it also has a population of 45 million, already Poland is preparing to take refugees, and the United Kingdom has sent soldiers to the border to help.
Diplomacy will get murky and difficult, with escalation on everyone's mind, the united kingdom for example with Poland signed a trilateral agreement with Ukraine to come to its aid and support, how? That remains to be seen, but while unlikely, it could mean British troops in Ukraine, and that would mean a great power war, as NATO would certainly be dragged in.
Great Power wars in my opinion can be defined by the three everyone, Everyone Loses, Everyone Contributes, Everyone loses someone.
Every nation loses, even the winner, the damage down, the lives lost, the trauma means that any victory gained is bitter and hollow.
Everyone contributes, Every aspect of human flourishing and brilliance is put on hold to fight the war, everything that does not help the war effort is unneeded.
Everyone loses someone, great war casualties are easier described in percentages of a nation's population rather than fixed numbers, an entire generation will be lost.
That's why peace should prevail, it is my hope, the pundits, the Americans and yes myself are wrong because if we are right, 80 years of European peace could end and the western world will be forced to either sit back and watch a democracy fall or fight an enemy that can punch back and punch hard, or both.
These 72 hours may be pivotal, this month will be tense, I hope to look back at this article and cringe at my hyperbole.
